Facebook vs Google

We are probably at one of the tipping points in the evolution of the Internet. That tipping point is Facebook. And the question is - as more people spend more time on Facebook, and the number of clicks on Facebook surpasses Google, is it possible that Facebook itself replaces Google? Particularly as traffic moves from desktop to mobile, where the first thing consumers use is Facebook and not Google.

It is certainly possible. And over the next 2 years, Facebook might start eroding Google's search business. But, the first thing that Facebook will hit is display, not search. It is probably already happening - Yahoo is barely growing its ad revs. Maybe, it is time to short some of the traditional display focussed ad biz on the Internet. Yahoo is so cheap that there is no point shorting it.

SuperMedia and DEX One

Directories just keep coming back to market after a trip to bankruptcy court. We have DEXO (former RH Donnelley) and SuperMedia (former Idearc) back in the market - still levered up 3x-4x Net Debt/EBITDA. These stocks will most likely still go to 0, but there might be some nasty bounces along the way. I hope they come out with a decent qtr, where ad rev decline is 12% instead of 15%.

Google Verizon Proposal

Google and Verizon announced a joint policy proposal today. While it is quite interesting in its entirety, what caught my eye was the word legal - "First, both companies have long been proponents of the FCC’s current wireline broadband openness principles, which ensure that consumers have access to all legal content on the Internet, and can use what applications, services, and devices they choose."

So Google is agreeing with Verizon that it can block bittorrent bits? That's very strange coming from Google.