Peter Drucker chose one new area of study every three years in his life. For the next two years (till Dec 10), this is my focus. (a) Markets (b) Learn French (c) Geography of Russia and Middle East
Monday, March 03, 2008
Buffet's crazy put options
Buffet has collected a $4.5 bn premium by selling 15-20 year put options on four stock indices (including S&P), stuck at the current level of market. Who are these geniuses who are so bearish on the market over a 15 year time-span that they paid a $4.5bn premium? Simply inflation would push up the level of markets - so the probablity of this event is low. But if the probability of this event is low, Buffet must have written this on a staggering huge notional amount - something like a trillion dollars. Is it Fidelity or Vanguard or one of these giant asset management firms who have bought these options - cant think of anyone else who has a trillion dollars to protect? Or am I reading this incorrectly? Why hasnt anyone else picked this up?
buffett has the edge.
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