I think people who are predicting the impact of recession on firms by linearly extrapolating past trends are wrong. This is because of the step function and its preponderance in life. Here is what Greenspan says in today's WSJ:
"The symptoms are clearly there. Recessions don't happen smoothly. They are usually signaled by a discontinuity in the market place, and the data of recent weeks could very well be characterized in that manner," he said.