WSJ is out with an article today on weak back-to-school sales (subs reqd). Now who knows what it means for holiday sales - but people will extrapolate. And one can expect more noise, more articles, and more confusion around holiday sales as Sep grows into Oct. This is probably going to be one big factor which keeps global markets on its toes - which is why I took money off some of the riskiest names I had last week.
Unfortunately, these stocks - Nilkamal etc - are up 10% since then. Indian mid-caps/small-caps are still running strong even though the bigger indices have turned. Probably these are the best stocks to long-short. They don't rise until the large caps are well and truly up (see May 2009), and they don't fall till the large caps have been taken to the cleaners.