Catching the bottom

Barrons has this excellent reason for why no one can catch the bottom...

"THERE'S A REASON THAT STOCK PRICES ALWAYS BOTTOM BEFORE the economic news turns for the better -- and it isn't all about the "wisdom of crowds" working its information-processing magic in the crucible of the market.

It happens partly because a struggling market, in its impatience, tries to anticipate the turn so often, with bottle-rocket rallies, that eventually it turns out to be right.

It's easy to tell the false dawns from the real ones, of course. Just wait a year or two, and it'll be clear in retrospect. Divining it in real time and anticipating the anticipatory is a good deal tougher."