Wednesday, February 18, 2009

The Eastern Europe Blowup

This is a true horror show happening. Maybe Kazakhstan should go to China and ask for $50bn in return for profit sharing in some future oil field. If Chinese can put $19 bn in Rio Tinto, they can also surely invest in oil fields. A communist country is becoming capitalist in a major way.    

There was a time two years ago when perceived risk was much lesser than actual risk. Now probably, we are in a phase where perceived risk is much higher than actual risk. for e.g. if all corporates are going to delever, then the actual risk of corporate bonds of strong companies is lesser than the perceived risk.   

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