Monday, June 01, 2009

CTSH Long, INFY Short

My first long short in my personal account. Lets see how it works. Portfolio right now:

a) PM - This is my fav play on EM currencies. 

b) CNK - Bought when Swine Flu hit Mexico last month and the shares swooned. Is the content cycle in 2010 as good as the one this year? Probably time to exit after 2Q results, which are going to blow out consensus. I actually like this company - they seem to execute better than AMC and Regal.  

c) TWC - 11% FCF yield ex the tax benefits. Cable video gross margins are going down + they need to market to compete against DTV - unemployment is a concurrent indicator for cablecos and telcos. But if wireline telco companies can generate lots of cash when they lose 10% lines each year, I am sure cable can with 1%-2% sub loss. 

d) VNV, UZG - debt securities of Viacom and US Cellular

e) VWO - Vanguard emerging market fund. This is the beta. 

It is an extremely defensive portfolio (55% cash) with hardly any cyclicals - too bad for me. Probably it is another 5 years before I figure out how to price commodities, and I am in no hurry.  

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