Monday, June 01, 2009


If emerging market stocks run another 20%-30% from here, I am pretty sure oil will follow. The same logic that investors are using to bid up asset prices - liquidity from the Fed - can and is being used to bid up oil prices. 

The thing is - there is no theory to figure out what the price of a commodity should be. For stocks, one can use DCF or some other intellectual justification. What should one use to figure out the price of oil? Supply is more than demand today. So should oil fall to $50 or $40. Why not $10? An economist will say - well the price of oil should be such that demand is met over the next few years and oil exploration companies are able to earn their cost of capital. If oil companies make excess profits, than price of oil is high. Needless to say, this logic has zero practical applicability. 

Markets are open right now for both equity and debt, and the Fed will be hoping that investors calm down a bit. Because if they don't, by their very actions, investors will cause inflation to happen. It might not happen in US as much where commodity prices are not a big part of CPI, but it will definitely happen in emerging markets like India. 

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