Thursday, July 23, 2009

Philip Morris International

Raises guidance to $3.10-$3.20. 2Q EPS is 0.83. Unless EM currencies appreciate even more from here, it is unlikely 2009's guidance gets raised much more beyond here. 1H EPS is $1.56, so if we assume similar performance as 2Q for rest of year - i.e. 2H EPS of $1.69, we come to $3.19.

Both PM and BAT have mentioned Korea as a growth market. PM mentions in its press release:

"In Korea, the total cigarette market was up by 2.8%. PMI’s shipment volume surged 17.9%, driven by market share increases. PMI’s market share reached 13.7%, up 1.9 points, driven by strong performances fromMarlboro, up 0.8 share points, Parliament, up 0.7 share points, and Virginia Slims, up 0.2 share points."

Must be bad for KT&G. It might be one of the companies that one of the big 4 (PM, BAT, IMT or JTI) acquire next.

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